Well, here we are. Week 11. This is where I tell you to trust me in helping you pick the right guy instead of the wrong guy so you don't lose this week. If you don't trust me, then that's okay. You're reading this because you likely have seen my weekly post before so you may trust my picks enough. I will continue to provide this service free of charge for you, just because I love you guys.
Okay, enough being mushy. Let's get at it.
QUARTERBACKS
START Bo Nix vs Atlanta Falcons
If there's been any surprise in the rookie QB category, it's been Bo Nix. Nix has mostly been the afterthought in that category with all of the other QBs receiving all of the attention, both positive and negative. What Nix has been doing is just being solid and consistent. He only has two dud weeks in Weeks 2 and 4 and has been at least QB18 in every other week. He has three top 10 QB finishes this season. He can be relied on for making plays with his legs; his rushing upside should give him much more respect as a more consistent play in all fantasy formats. Against the Falcons this week, (8th most points to opposing QBs this season), Nix has a softer matchup than the previous week against Kansas City where he still managed a QB12 finish. Don't take Nix lightly; put him in your lineup without hesitation this week.
SIT Jordan Love vs Chicago Bears
It's definitely hard to sit Love this week with a few critical QBs on bye this week. I may advise you to look elsewhere with Love who has not looked great in his past couple of performances. He had a week to heal up but likely playing hobbled doesn't help his case to be in lineups against a stout Bears defense this week (LEAST number of points to opposing QBs this season). Everything is working against Love this week and if you are able to, I would avoid putting him in your starting lineups.
RUNNING BACKS
START Alexander Mattison vs Miami Dolphins
Mattison has been a pleasant surprise even to me. I have a disdain for Mattison after last season with Minnesota where he was not reliable in the least. With the Raiders this season, however, he has turned around to provide solid FLEX value most weeks. This week against the Dolphins, their weak spot has been stopping the run game opposed to being a top pass defense in the league. They are 10th in RB points allowed this season. Zamir White was the one to find the end zone last week but he still only rushed 6 times for 10 yards. I think it's safe to play Mattison at your FLEX spot this week.
SIT Chase Brown vs Los Angeles Chargers
Chase Brown is on a heater right now. Two straight Top 5 RB finish makes things harder for him to sit. The thing is he's going up against the best defense in the league by all metrics: the LA Chargers. In the two games before his "heater", he went up against the Cleveland Browns and Philadelphia Eagles which are both Top 10 in least number of RB points this season and put up two stinkers (7.30 vs CLE and 11.40 vs PHI). That was with the healthy share of carries, he just didn't do much with them as he averaged under 3 yards per carry in both games. The Chargers are likely to spell Brown from the game (2nd least points to RBs) and hopefully you can find an alternative.
WIDE RECEIVERS
START Jerry Jeudy vs New Orleans Saints
The Jameis Winston effect brings positive fantasy results to the players around him, regardless of possible turnovers. You can see it with Jeudy: He's seen 9.5 targets average over the past two games with Winston at QB where he wasn't seen half as much with Watson at QB. Jeudy is due to break out versus the Saints who have allowed the 3rd most points to WRs this season. You must continue to fire him up based on the potential volume as his ceiling is much higher than people believe.
SIT Colts WRs not named Josh Downs
Look out everyone: Anthony Richardson is back in at starting QB for the Colts. I think it's more than reasonable to say that most of the Colts receivers should be downgraded. Josh Downs is the only exception as it seems that Richardson and Downs have more chemistry than the rest of the receiving corps. I don't see any way you should be playing Michael Pittman, AD Mitchell or Alec Pierce when Richardson is under center; you're playing a losing game with that strategy. Even Downs is a tough sell with the Jets in their next matchups (least points to opposing WRs)
TIGHT ENDS
START Jonnu Smith vs Las Vegas Raiders
Over the last two games, Smith has been pretty solid with Tua having returned to the Dolphins with two Top 20 TE finishes. That doesn't exactly jump off the page but it might when they go up against the Raiders on Sunday who have allowed the 5th most points to opposing TEs yet are Top 5 least points to opposing WRs. That is a recipe to give Smith even more looks in the passing game where hopefully he can replicate his 7/96/1 stat line from 4 weeks ago where he took advantage of a
SIT Jake Ferguson vs Houston Texans
The subtraction of Dak Prescott is a huge bummer to all of the productive weapons in the Cowboys offense including Ferguson who has been a solid TE option all season long. With Cooper Rush in, everything is far from guaranteed. It also doesn't help that the Cowboys have the Lone Star matchup this week against the Houston Texans who happen to be very stout against tight ends (4th least points to TEs). With only 4.4 points last week, my hopes remain low with Ferguson until further notice.
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