Building the perfect wide receiver season

4000 Yards Passing: The Key to a WR1 Finish

The key to a wide reciever one finish in fantasy football

Wide Receivers can’t score fantasy points without quarterbacks. I know this is obvious, but we really do sometimes forget that even great talent can struggle to overcome a bad passing

situation. But even when the passing situation isn’t bad, there also has to be enough volume for a wide receiver to finish as an elite piece.

Over the past 7 seasons (2017-2023), just 13% of WR1s (11 of 84) in ½ PPR formats have

come from teams with under 4000 yards, an average of just 1.5 per season. And since 2018, no receiver has finished in the top 5 without a 4000 yard passing team, with DJ Moore coming the closest last year finishing as the WR6.

The players who finished as WR1s with teams passing for under 4000 yards are white.

Keep in mind, that 4000 yards includes all passers, not just the team’s top QB. For example, in 2023 Davante Adams finished as the WR11 and did it with a combination of Aiden O’Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Brian Hoyer. The trio only combined for 3654 yards, yet Adams cracked the top 12 at his position.

Year	Player(s)	Yards	TDs	Attempts/Targets	Comp/Receptions
2017	Deshaun Watson, Tom Savage, TJ Yates	3634	28	524	298
	DeAndre Hopkins	1378	13	174	96
	Jay Cutler, Matt Moore, David Fales	3792	24	599	373
	Jarvis Landry	987	9	161	112
	Andy Dalton	3320	25	496	297
	AJ Green	1078	8	143	75
	Carson Palmer, Blaine Gabbert, Drew Stanton	3958	21	598	339
	Larry Fitzgerald	1156	6	161	109
2018
2019	Mitch Trubisky, Chase Daniel	3573	20	580	371
	Allen Robinson	1147	7	154	98
2020	Ryan Tannehill	3819	33	481	315
	AJ Brown	1075	11	106	70
	Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles	3907	26	614	402
	Allen Robinson	1250	6	151	102
2021	Russ Wilson, Geno Smith	3815	30	495	324
	DK Metcalf	967	12	129	75
2022	Jacoby Brissett, Deshaun Watson	3710	19	540	335
	Amari Cooper	1160	9	132	78
2023	Justin Fields, Tyson Bagent	3421	19	513	321
	DJ Moore	1364	8	136	96
	Aidan O'Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer	3654	19	554	346
	Davante Adams	1144	8	175	103

Their reason for the outliers like Adams is obvious: high volume.

The WRs on teams with under 4000 yards who still finished as WR1s garnered a whopping 31% of their team’s yardage, 37% of their team’s TDs, and 27% of their team’s targets. The WRs who did it last season were DJ Moore and Davante Adams. Moore totaled nearly 40% of his team’s yardage, 42% of his team’s TDs, and 26.5% of his team’s targets. Adams meanwhile had 31% of his team’s yardage, 42% of his team’s TDs, and an insane 31.5% of his team’s targets.

So, what to do with this information?

Looking at the top 20 WRs, here are my biggest “red flags” for WRs who I think could be very capped in their volume situation:

WR3: Justin Jefferson: Despite an extremely poor QB situation with Sam Darnold as the

presumed long-term starter, Jefferson is still going in the top 5 WRs in all major formats.

Darnold’s over/under for season-long passing yards hovers around 3200-3400 on most sites. I do think Jefferson will be a WR1 this season thanks to his talent and volume, but hitting as the WR3 or 4 seems like a long shot and I suspect he’ll finish closer to WR8-9. Give me Amon Ra, Chase, or AJ Brown easily.

WR10: Davante Adams: Gardner Minshew has been named the starter, but I’d be shocked if

we don’t see some AOC at some point this year. Regardless, the duo is not passing for 4,000

yards, and with the addition of Brock Bowers (and his aging) I’ll be shocked if Adams matches his obscene 31.5% target share this year, which he would absolutely need to crack the top 12. I fully expect him to be a volume WR2 finishing in the WR16-18 range, but I don’t think he’s worth taking a shot on in that mid-second range round for drafts. I’d be much happier targeting Drake London, Olave, or a RB in that range.

WR18: Michael Pittman: Richardson is a complete unknown, and as much as I believe in the

rushing upside of the QB and Shane Steichen, I don’t believe in the second year player passing for close to 4000 yards in his first real season. His over/under for season-long passing yardage is hovering around 3200. Michael Pittman would have to demand an insane target share and he’s competing with Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, and Jonathan Taylor for targets. He’s a huge “fade” for me going ahead of names like Waddle and Metcalf.

Bottom Line: If there’s a WR in the top 20 you’re looking at and you don’t think their team is

going to come anywhere close to that 4000 yard total, it might be wise to fade them in favor of a receiver who should get a bit more volume.