Breece Hall (and the Jets) have been one of the most confounding and frustrating offenses in Fantasy Football this season. The high expectations this team had coming into the year have officially cratered. Aaron Rodgers has not looked like a winning quarterback, Garrett Wilson has continued to be inefficient despite heavy target loads, and Breece Hall has not looked like the elite back from 2022 and 2023 and is now splitting time with rookie Braelon Allen. This has culminated in the firing of Head Coach Robert Saleh as the Jets appear to be in a complete freefall.
So, what do we make of Breece Hall moving forward? Will he be a top 10 RB for fantasy for the rest of the season, or will the once elite RB continue to see his value spiral? Our contributors Patrick and Samwell take opposing views and battle it out in a FantasyHolics Faceoff.
Why Breece Hall WILL NOT be a top 10 RB for the rest of 2024:
Look I love Breece Hall the player; this is merely an indictment of his current situation. Naturally, I was composing this article before Robert Saleh was let go. Will a new voice leading the way cure what ails this team? This stagnant offense led by Nathaniel Hackett has been underwhelming, the Jets offensive line has been problematic for a while. They aren't protecting Aaron Rodgers as he’s been pressured at an alarming rate (13 sacks through five games).
With that being said, there isn't any room to run as Hall has rushed for an abysmal 3.0 yards per carry. The Jets as a whole are 25th in rushing attempts, 27th in rushing touchdowns and 30th in yards per carry, only earning 3.6 yards per run. It may not be fair to extrapolate a lost season under Zach Wilson onto Hall, but it still did happen and needs to be addressed; Hall has only rushed for over 100 yards three times in his last 22 games.
Braelon Allen, however, is running the ball a lot more than anyone had expected through five weeks and has looked like a proven NFL commodity, not a 20 year old. On the season, Hall has just above twice as many carries as Allen (65 rushes to 32). Allen is gaining 4.5 yards per carry thus far on the ground and nine yards per catch through the air, both numbers eclipse what Hall has been able to accomplish so far this year.
The Jets aren’t scoring enough points to run the ball to preserve a win, which is taking the ball out of Hall’s hands with the Jets playing catchup every week. This team needs a fundamental shift in their offensive philosophy, which is a tall task to do in general, let alone expecting a change during the season. The previous coaching staff has been rewarding Allen’s success with more touches and although there’s little to no chance of Hall losing the starting gig outright, I'm definitely selling the possibility of Hall receiving enough of the workload to finish the season as a top ten running back.
Why Breece Hall WILL be a top 10 RB for the rest of 2024:
Things look bad…I get it. And the firing of Saleh certainly doesn’t help the optics. But let’s take a look at the start of Breece’s season.
Through the first three weeks, Hall was the RB6 (1/2 PPR), exceeding 15 points in all three games against pretty good defenses (New England, San Fran, and Tennessee). I know that seems like eons ago, but you weren’t unhappy with Breece to start the year, were you? The last two weeks, the Jets have played two of the best defenses in the NFL. Denver has allowed the 22nd fewest fantasy points to RBs, while Minnesota has allowed the 29th. And keep in mind—that Denver game was a 10-9 slugfest played in a downpour—that is a “burn the tape game” if I’ve ever seen one.
Now the Jets do have to play at Pittsburgh week 7 and vs. Houston week 9, both of whom are bottom third in the league in fantasy points allowed to RBs, but outside of those two matchups the Jets have arguably the easiest remaining strength of schedule for RBs in the league, with 6 of their final 11 games against run defenses that are top 10 in points allowed to RBs (including two games against Buffalo, who is first in points allowed).
And while concerns about Braelon Allen cutting into Hall’s workload are valid, it’s also important to note that Hall, even during the past two down weeks, has still seen the field for the vast majority of RB snaps: 51 of 70 in week 4 and 53 of 72 in week 5, including nearly all of the third down and two-minute-drill snaps and a majority of the goal line snaps. He is still on the field. He is still the lead back.
But has he been bad? He certainly hasn’t been elite, as he is averaging just 3.0 ypc this season. But keep in mind, he’s never averaged less than 4.5 in a season and the offensive line play has been atrocious. This year, he is 90th in rushing yards per attempt before contact (1.0), with just 66 total yards before contact on 65 runs. To put that in perspective, Saquon Barkley has 311 yards on 73 carries. This will improve at least a little as the defenses get softer.
The current RB10 is Aaron Jones, who has averaged just 14 points per game in half ppr formats. I truly believe that Hall can crack that down the stretch. On his current pace, Hall would finish with just 690 rushing yards. I am willing to bet the over on that. I believe in talent and Hall is still an elite talent.
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