By Samwell Tarly
It has come to my attention that no one seems to realize Jayden Reed is not only a monstrous “trade for” target based on historical trends, but he is also a strong target to outperform his ADP this season on GB based on people’s perceptions of Jordan Love and historical year 2 performances for WRs.
Let’s start with redraft ADPs.
Using fantasy pros ADP information here are two teams, side by side, with the ADPs of their
QB, top 3 WRs, their presumed starting RB and TE.
Team 1: QB5 WR13 WR20 WR27 TE14
3932 / 19
Team 2: QB10 WR33 WR45 WR53 WR66 TE17 TE33
3618 / 16
Team 1 is the Houston Texans. Team 2 is Green Bay. Most sites have Stroud and Love
separated by only 1-4 spots (for example: Andy, Jason, and Mike of the Fantasy Footballers
have Stroud at 7, 5, and 11, respectively, while ranking Love at 8, 11, and 9). Collins, Diggs and Dell are all routinely going in the top 25 of drafts but not a single GB receiver is cracking the top 30, but the scoring just…doesn’t make sense.
If we look at last season and add up the stat lines of the players who finished where the Texans top 3 WRs are going and their top TE, we get something close to 3930 and 19 TDs.
If we do the same with Green Bay but also add their fourth WR (Wicks, going at WR53,
Additionally, most fantasy managers would agree that the difference in mid-level QB scoring to backend QB1 scoring is not enough to move WR ADPs that far.
For example:
- 2023 the QB6 scored 306 points, the QB12 scored 278.
- 2022 the QB6 scored 307, the QB12 scored 280.
- 2021 the QB6 scored 336, the QB12 scored 282.
If Love and Stroud finish where we think they will we’re talking about the difference in Stroud scoring 18-19 ppg and Love scoring approximately 16.5 ppg.
Now you might ask “Does Love provide more rushing?” And the answer is “not really.” There
wasn’t a significant difference last year. Love had 247 yards on the ground and 4 TDs while
Stroud totaled 167 yards and 3 TDs. Keep in mind, too, that Stroud played two fewer games
due to injury than Love.
In my opinion, if you consider Love even close to being in the same tier of fantasy QB as
Stroud, you have to see all Green Bay WRs as an extreme value, particularly Watson and Reed.
To be blunt, even if the “they spread the ball out too much” narrative proves true, all of GB’s
WRs could still pay dividends on their ADPs. We seem to love Love, but hate his WRs.
In 2023, here were the yardage and TD totals of the WR33, WR45, and WR53 (where the GB players are being drafted).
- WR33: Terry McLaurin – 79/1002/4
- WR45: Tee Higgins – 42/656/5
- WR53: Dontayvion Wicks – 39/581/4
To put these rankings in perspective, Christian Watson is being drafted as the WR45 because he has injury concerns but in 2022 had a 41/611/7 line (good for the WR25 finish) in just 9 games. In 20 total games, Watson has averaged 3.45 receptions per game, 51.65 yards, and 0.6 TDs per game (this includes games in which he was injured and didn’t finish). To hit WR45 in 2023 he would’ve needed just 97 points. Based on his reception/yardage/TD averages he’d have to only play 8 total games. People are currently drafting Watson with the implication he will miss more than half the season.
Reed is a little tougher to value. The key reason he seems to be outside that top 25 is people expecting TD regression and the uncertainty of Watson playing more this season, as well as Wicks/Doubs and other supporting players taking more away from him, but keep in mind reed just had the 27 th best rookie WR ppr season of all time just behind Ceedee Lamb’s 2020 (217.1 points) and AJ Green’s 2011 (218 points).
Granted—he’s probably not going to score at the same rate he did last season. He averaged 1
TD on every 8 catches. That’s a better TD rate than Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, and Ceedee
Lamb in 2023. But that expectation of TD regression also has something else baked into
it—expectation of reduced volume. What I mean by this is, based on his ADP, we’re expecting
Reed’s TD rate to regress, but also expect his total TDs to decrease and his target volume to flatline. There’s not really any other explanation.
Last season, Reed totaled 64 and scored 8 times (1 TD per 8 targets). A closer league average
for the WR1 or 2 on their respective team would be in the low to mid-teens. Some other WR2-3 players for comparison:
- DJ Moore: 12
- Chris Olave: 17.4
- Devonta Smith: 11.5
- Nico Collins: 10
- Zay Flowers: 15.4
So yes—we should expect the rate to fall, but what would it take for Reed to get back to 8 TDs assuming a normal rate?
Unless he has an extreme outlier year in the other direction (like Chris Godwin’s 2023 season where he caught 83 passes and scored just 2 TDs), we should expect Reed’s TD rate to be somewhere in the 13-16 receptions per TD range. With 14.5 as a baseline, it would take Reed 116 receptions to get there. That’s indeed steep and probably not happening.
So, the question is—what should we expect for Reed based on historical trends? What type of yardage/reception total is likely and how many TDs will that equate to?
Jayden Reed totaled just under 800 yards in 2023. Here are the closest rookie WRs I could find(drafted rounds 1-3) in the ten years prior to Reed entering the league (2013 to 2022) who had roughly the same yardage and involvement in an offense that Reed did:
- TY Hilton: 50 catches / 861 yards / 7 TDs
- Deandre Hopkins: 52 / 802 / 2
- George Pickens: 52 / 801 / 4
- DJ Moore: 55 / 788 / 2
- Jarvis Landry: 84 / 758 / 5
- Brandon Aiyuk: 60 / 748 / 5
- Terrance Williams: 44 / 736 / 5
- Courtland Sutton: 42 / 704 / 4
Now here is what those WRs did *the next* season.
- TY Hilton: 82 / 1083 / 5
- Deandre Hopkins: 76 / 1210 / 6
- George Pickens: 63 / 1140 / 5
- DJ Moore: 87 / 1175 / 4
- Jarvis Landry: 110 / 1157 / 4
- Brandon Aiyuk: 56 / 826 / 5
- Terrance Williams: 37 / 621 / 8
- Courtland Sutton: 72 / 1112 / 6
Nearly every WR on this list saw more receptions and totaled more yardage in their second
season, with the only outlier being Williams who can probably be categorized as the only real “bust” on this list. Aiyuk also had some strange training camp/off-the-field issues that leaked into his second season with reports that the coaching staff was upset with him, potentially causing some early season issues (for reference, Aiyuk didn’t even play week 1 and averaged just 3.2 targets per game until week 7).
Even just looking at their year 2 fantasy finishes, we can see the range of outcomes looks stellar for Reed based on his rookie season.
Hopkins: WR14
Hilton: WR18
Pickens: WR29
Moore: WR16
Landry: WR9
Sutton: WR19
Aiyuk: WR35
Williams: WR52
Reed would need to have a Terrance Williams meltdown to not meet his ADP. Every other
receiver on that list hit on a top 30 season.
So now let’s assume Reed isn’t a bust and exclude Terrance Williams, as I think Reed is a much better WR (and Williams was on the lower end for yardage comparison). The WRs on that list saw the following increase in receptions and yardage between their rookie and sophomore seasons:
- 30% increase in yardage (780 to 1100)
- 29% increase in receptions (56 to 78 receptions)
Now let’s apply all this to Jayden Reed’s rookie season. If Reed were to have a conservative TD
rate of 1 TD per 14.5 catches and increase his rookie yardage and receptions by 30% and 29%,
respectively, his final line in 2024 would look something like:
- 83 receptions, 1031 yards, 6 TDs
In 2023, that would’ve put him in the WR22-24 range around Deandre Hopkins, DK Metcalf, and Jordan Addison.
I think we have to ask ourselves—why aren’t we buying in? Even if Jayden Reed follows the
Brandon Aiyuk path and plateaus in year 2, we should expect him to finish with approximately the same line he had with fewer TDs, something like:
- 60 receptions, 800 yards, 4 TDs
In 2023, that would’ve made him the WR39. Yes—you’re reading that correctly. If Jayden Reed does not improve in any way and sees his TDs cut in half, he’ll only underperform his ADP by about 6 spots. And keep in mind—no rookie WR over the past 10 years with roughly 700-850 yards receiving went on to have a worse year two for fantasy. Even Terrance Williams, who never went on to have a top 30 WR fantasy season, had an equal fantasy output (147 PPR points) in both his rookie and year 2 seasons. He didn’t get worse. Reed would be a true outlier.
Looking at redraft, these players are ranked or are being drafted ahead of Jayden Reed whom I think he could outperform (and is a better value at his ADP):
- Terry Mclaurin – best season is 77/1053/5 and has a rookie QB
- Keenan Allen – huge injury and age risk, presumed WR2 on his team, rookie QB
- Christian Kirk – his career-best season would be close to J Reed’s expected year 2
- Malik Nabers – unless he puts up Chase/Jefferson/Nacua rookie stats he won’t break
1100/6, bad QB situation as well
- Tank Dell: extremely similar year 1 profile (Dell went for 47/709/7 year 1) and his path to
be #1 on the team is murkier than Reed’s
- Zay Flowers: another rookie with a similar profile (77/858/5) but had most of the season
with no Mark Andrews.
- Cooper Kupp: his underlying metrics (targets per route run, fantasy points per target,
and separation statistics) have all decreased each year since his record year. Injury
concern and the WR2 on his team.
- Tee Higgins: he’s the WR2 on this team and his best season was 74/1029/7
For the record, I’m not advocating you reach back and take Reed in the third or fourth round of redrafts. Instead, consider him a target slightly ahead of his ADP and use that 3rd – 4th round range to snag another position of need expecting you’ll be able to scoop up Reed at a value in the late 5th or early 6th round.
Looking at Dynasty, we should be thinking of Reed the way we think of players like Tee Higgins, Devonta Smith, or at the very least Tank Dell and George Pickens, yet here are the KTC ( Keep/Trade/Cut ) startup ADPs for those players:
- Devonta Smith: #29 overall, WR16
- Tank Dell: #40 overall, WR19
- Tee Higgins: #47 overall, WR23
- George Pickens: #54 overall, WR26
- Jayden Reed: #68 overall, WR30
A 2-3 round disparity, in my opinion, screams “value” when looking at these player’s profiles and what they’ve done. If you believe in Love and the GB offense and don’t think Reed is a “bust,” you should target him where he’s being drafted in startups.
Key Takeaways:
- If you think Love is 80-90 cents on the dollar compared to Stroud, you should also think
all of GB’s WRs are undervalued, especially Reed and Watson at their ADPs. A dart
throw on Wicks or Doubs is probably smart, too.
- Reed will almost certainly regress in TD rate, but we should expect him to get 30% more
yardage and receptions, which will make up for the loss in TDs and help him outperform
his ADP.
- Rookie WRs don’t typically put up numbers like Reed did by accident. They almost
universally improve in their second year and go on to have great careers.
- Even if Reed isn’t much more involved this year and has his TDs cut in half, he still
should finish as a top 40 WR.
- Watson would likely have to miss more than half the season to not meet his ADP of
WR45.
2013 – 2022
Second Round WRs with 700 – 900 yards receiving rookie year:
- Tee Higgins
- Chase Claypool
- Deebo Samuel
- DK Metcalf
- Jordan Matthews
- Juju Smith-Schuster
- Jarvis Landry
- Courtland Sutton
Only Claypool and Deebo Samuel regressed in year 2 (Deebo’s was due to injury as he missed most of the season). All others finished in the top 20 (PPR) in their sophomore seasons.
Higgins: WR28 - WR17
Claypool: WR14 – WR36
Samuel: WR26 – WR97
Metcalf: WR30 – WR5
Matthews: WR24 – WR20
Smith-Schuster: WR18 – WR9
Landry: WR31 – WR9
Courtland Sutton: WR50 – WR19
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