What is the panic level through three weeks? #samwell gives us a closer look
As with my week 1 and week 2 articles, we’re looking at the worst duds of the week and what reaction we should have to their performances, focusing mainly on players who were drafted in the top 75 or so of redraft leagues. Last week we had four levels, but this week I’m adding one final level of freakout as we have now seen 3 weeks of performances and have TONS of information to make season-long decisions:
Relax - he’s fine, better days ahead
Pause - monitor closely, something might be off but could be fine
Panic - something is definitely wrong, consider benching or trading
Full Blown Panic – fantasy value on life support, potentially droppable (depending on league). Get whatever value you can.
Abandon ship – It’s over. Drop this player and let someone else deal with the headache.
With that, let’s talk about the duds.
Zamir White – Panic
The Zamir White experiment is another learning moment for all of us fantasy managers who take small samples sizes from a previous season and the “next man up” or “there’s no one else” argument to its logical endpoint: over-drafting a player based on hope and potential. Over the summer, Zamir White went from being drafted outside the top 100 to climbing all the way into the 60s in some formats. The oft-made argument was “who else is there? Alexander Mattison?” Turns out…yes. That was right. White’s role is almost completely built on first and second down running, and if the game script doesn’t work out for the Raiders he’s not on the field. This week was supposed to be the “get right” game for the Raiders’ running game but the Red Rifle had other ideas. White was actually out-snapped by both Mattison and Abdullah in this one and had 0 targets. If White’s name carries any weight, I’m moving him. In 12-team leagues I might hold him with two manageable matchups coming up against Denver and Cleveland, but in shallower leagues he probably needs to be dropped. A three-headed rotation on a bad offense with no pass-catching upside isn’t how you win at the RB position in fantasy.
Diontae Johnson – Pause
When I wrote my piece on Diontae last week it was written with the belief that Bryce Young would continue to start. My issue with Diontae was his QB, not him personally. I didn’t think in my wildest dreams Carolina would pull the plug after just 2 starts in 2024 but here we are. Carolina allegedly turned down multiple trade offers for the second year QB last week. I’m wondering if maybe they should take a deal. Dalton put on a real show against the Raider, and while I don’t expect the Red Rifle to continue at such a torrid pace (he’s averaged under 200 yards per game over the last 4 seasons), it’s glaringly obvious the offense is better off with him under center. That being said, Carolina’s schedule over the coming weeks isn’t ideal—vs. Cincy, @Chicago, vs. Atlanta, all of whom are bottom 10 in points per game surrendered to WRs. But in PPR leagues I’m willing to hold onto Diontae unless someone is coming knocking for a deal. Maybe a revenge game against Cincy for Dalton will be another great opportunity for Diontae Johnson, who looked incredible in week 3.
Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and all top Tight Ends – Panic?
The top scoring TEs this week in PPR were: Goedert, Kmet, Ferguson, Conklin, Fant Otten, and Vannett. Just like we all expected, right? While the top 6 Tight Ends drafted all look like busts, the key here is—they ALL look like busts. The TE landscape is hell right now. Defenses have shifted their philosophy and are playing a cover 2 look on over 60% of snaps this year (double from last season). I’m not a scheme expert, but there seems to be a leaguewide issue with getting TEs involved in the passing game. If you own one of the top guys, I would keep riding it out. If you try to swap them for a Fant or an Otten, you’re just as likely to get burned with a bad week chasing points. It’s painful for all of us. Hope for better weeks ahead (and for LaPorta’s injury to not be too serious).
Rachaad White – Panic
I gave White a pass from being on this list last week, as he struggled with an injury (and perhaps that lingering issue has caused his usage to change), but what we have all been expecting for the past 18 months to play out finally seems to be happening—the Bucs are trying out other players at RB because of White’s inefficiencies. Through three weeks, he’s totaled just 66 yards on 31 carries (while Irving, who has continued to get more work, has 154 yards on 25 carries). Irving can’t handle the workload of the entire backfield, but White’s volume was the only thing propping up his value. The upshot is the Bucs have a very good strength of schedule in the second half of the season (and in the playoffs) and White is still getting involved in the passing game. Don’t just give him away (particularly in PPR leagues), but his week to week value has taken a nosedive and it could be pretty ugly over the next month.
D’andre Swift – Abandon Ship
Aside from looking absolutely terrible (Swift again averaged under 3 ypc), Swift is now splitting work with Khalil Herbert AND Roschon Johnson. This Indy defense was supposed to be the beatable front the Bears could run against. Turns out, Chicago can’t run against anyone. Consider buying the Bears’ pass catchers and banish Swift to the waiver wire. He’s this year’s Miles Sanders. It’s over.
Javonte Williams – Full Blown Panic
Not only did Denver win this game, they dominated for most of it. That is a recipe for running the ball. And yet Javonte still was a no show (and fumbled). Tyler Badie got 9 carries in this one, matching McLaughlin and Williams’ carries combined. Williams now has 52 yards on 24 carries in three games. Badie totaled 70 yards on 9 attempts coming off the practice squad (go buy him). It is time to turn the page on Williams, who is more than a season removed from his injury and has not returned to form. Let someone else get attached to the name brand of Javonte. He looks done. Trade for what you can, drop in shallower leagues, and in deeper leagues consider maybe holding for one more week if you have no options to see how things shake out.
Garrett Wilson – Pause
This is my own personal take—it’s going to get worse before it gets better, but by year’s end Wilson will be a value that you like having on your team. The Jets dominated NE on TNF, but Wilson didn’t have an explosive night. It could’ve been explosive if not for some missed opportunities, though. Wilson continues to be the WR1 on this Jets’ team (from a targets perspective), and while seeing Lazard score (again) is frustrating, Rodgers’ quote after the game is telling: “Once #5 and I get on the same page it’s going to be something special.” I believe that. Rodgers has built his game on timing and meshing with WRs the way few other QB/WR combos do and Wilson clearly isn’t quite there, but Rodgers wants him to be. That upside of that is worth chasing, but probably not yet. The Jets play Denver, Minnesota, Buffalo and Pitt over the next month. I’m not going to sugar coat it—being a Wilson owner will be rough. But the schedule opens up after that and provides some breathing room. Given time, I really do expect Wilson’s talent to shine when he gets on the same page with Rodgers, who looked excellent in TNF. Don’t give up on him yet, but expect to weather a rocky month ahead. If you don’t own him, consider targeting him in trades in 2 weeks or so.
Brandon Aiyuk – Panic?
It’s been 3 weeks and Aiyuk still isn’t on the same page with Purdy. It was truly painful to watch Juan Jennings score 3 TDs and rack up 175 yards while Aiyuk again looked out of sync with this offense, totaling just 5 catches on 10 targets. Brutal. And without Kittle and Deebo on the field. These next two weeks will be really telling, as SF plays NE and AZ, both of whom have beatable secondaries. If Aiyuk is still struggling when they take on NE and KC, I’m not sure what I’ll make of the situationI expected him to regress from his hyper efficient 2023, but this? Aiyuk could be one of the biggest busts of 2024 if this doesn’t get turned around fast.
Michael Pittman – Full Blown Panic
Speaking of busts—if there’s anyone willing to take Pittman for something of value in redraft leagues, I’m ready to move on. 3 of Indy’s next 4 games are against teams in the bottom 6 for points given up to WRs (Pitt, Tenn, Miami). I think Pittman is pretty talented—not a superstar, but a good receiver. However, Richardson looks…bad. Really bad. And he appears to have zero connection with Pittman over the middle of the field. Worse, Josh Downs is back and matched him in targets this week (5). Pittman ran just 20 routes. I suspect Indy will be playing from behind more often than not over the coming weeks, but you’re potentially missing out on waiver pickups that could be winning you games by holding on. I would consider dropping and let someone else hope he’ll turn it around or, if possible, add him to a trade and move on.
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