Houston Texans @ New York Jets
Metlife Stadium East Rutherford NJ 72 degrees
Over/Under: 42.5
Line: NYJ -2
This Halloween version of #tnfonprime gives a trick of a spooky matchup between two teams who had lofty expectations a few weeks ago, now find themselves limping into the second half of the season, their graves practically done unless they can find a secret potion to rally in the second half of the season.
Quarterback C.J Stroud vs Aaron Rodgers
These two faces of their respective franchises are off to sluggish starts. C.J Stroud’s sophomore campaign has not been as nearly fruitful as his rookie campaign, and adversity has found Aaron Rogers again. Stroud was sitting pretty entering the season with elite wide receivers Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Unfortunately, Dell is the only of that trio left standing in Week 9 after losing Stefon Diggs to an ACL tear and still without the services of Nico Collins for one more week. Plagued by mediocre play, mediocre play calling and mediocre decision making the Jets find themselves at 2-6. Allen Lazard has risen from the dead ( for a few weeks that was ) and the Jets landed Davante Adams. May better weeks be ahead for the J-E-T-S?
Fantasy impact: The Texans will be using any healthy bodies in the building as John Metchie III and Xavier Hutchinson get to dress up as Texans starters Thursday. The “No Fly Zone” Jets are always a force and are allowing miniscule numbers to opposing quarterbacks. The Jets have allowed the; 2nd fewest completions ( for teams that have played 8 games ), the fewest yards by a team through 8 games, and 4th fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position, for the teams that have played 8 times. Just wait until you see how bad the forecast is for Texans WR. The Texans have been a little easier for fantasy quarterbacks allowing 23.1 points per game, 6th highest. The Texans have given up 16 passing touchdowns which is 4th most in the league A warning however; the Texans secondary has allowed a league low 53.1 % completion percentage and the 4th fewest passing yards.
I’d avoid both quarterbacks here at all possible, but if I had to start one it would be Rodgers.
Running Backs: Joe Mixon vs Breece Hall and Braelon Allen
The Texans run game has looked fantastic at times but like their receiver corp, they’re starting to get a little thin. The Texans traded Cam Akers a few weeks ago and have already ruled Dameon Pierce out. This will be game four with new play callers Jeff Ulbrich and Todd Downing, Hall has seen steady volume on the ground and through the air and should continue to benefit from the room created by newly acquired Davante Adams. Braelon Allen is still chugging along stealing valuable touches.
Fantasy Impact: Both Mixon and Hall are undeniable starters here, Mixon has rushed for over 100 yards in four of his five games and been targeted at least three times every week. With the injuries to Diggs and Collins and the #Jets secondary, a massive workload lies ahead for Mixon. The Jets defense has seen the 6th most rush attempts, and you have to figure the Texans are not going to look to air the ball out with a very depleted receiving position. Hall should benefit by the amount of healthy playmakers the Jets have at their disposal. The Texans run defense has been adequate and is in the upper half of the league in most metrics; you're still not sitting Hall. The Texans defense is yielding just 1.15 yards before contact (per PFF). Just hope that Braelon Allen doesn't steal any precious fantasy points. Sit Allen in all formats.
Wide Receivers: Tank Dell, John Metchie III, Xavier Hutchinson vs Garrell Wilson, Davante Adams, Mike Williams
Had we turned injuries off this year, this would have been the receiver matchup of the #NFL season. Instead we get to see some of the #Texans special teamers vs disgruntled Jets wideouts. Tank Dell will get the abysmal assignment of facing Sauce Gardner and D.J Reed gets to flank Metchie, Hutchinson or maybe even a Robert Woods sighting. On the other side, Derek Stingley Jr and Jalen Pitre are going to be busy shadowing Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams.
Fantasy Impact: Dell would be even a risk as a flex but AS YOU NEVER FLEX THURSDAYS, I can’t see starting any Texans wide receiver with any shred of hope. The Jets have allowed the fewest receptions and yards by teams through 8 games, have allowed only 5 wide receiver scores on the year and give up a measly 16.6 points per game to the position. The Texans on the other hand have allowed the second most receiving scores ( ELEVEN ) to receivers and sixth most fantasy points per game. Wilson and Adams are solid WR2 starts with both sniffing a top 10 finish at the position this week. Mike Williams is a solid sit tonight.
Tight Ends: Dalton Schultz vs Tyler Conklin
Dalton Schultz figures to benefit the most from the Texans injuries but is in for a bumpy ride if he’s lined up versus Quincey Williams too much. Tyler Conklin is also welcoming more elite weapons to the offense to allow him to get free. Conklin has been right on the fringe of fantasy relevance as of late as he’s had either six plus targets or a touchdown in five of his last six games.
Fantasy Impact: With some big names on bye ( Kittle, Freiermuth ), some players injured ( Goedert) or just plain infuriating (Sam LaPorta) these are some bottom of the barrel TE10-12 starts that may find the endzone. Schultz should see 5-6 catches, 60-70 yard neighborhood, with Conklin the red zone threat for a touchdown.
Kickers: Ka’imi Fairbairn vs Riley Patterson or Spencer Shrader.
Fairbairn is one of the best in the business and a fine start against a solid Jets defense and a Texans offense that has had little time to prepare. The Jets kicker situation is why your league should not use kickers. Avoid either here, please.
Defenses: Texans vs Jets
With the Texans receiving corps depleted and C.J Stroud off his game ( no finish higher than QB7 since Week 4 ), and the Jets annual dysfunction, both DST’s are an ok start here. The Texans have 27 quarterback sacks, third in the NFL, the Jets have 23 which is 6th best. Both feel to be a lock for at least two interceptions, one of which may be a pick six.
Bold Prediction: Joe Mixon rumbles for 175 all-purpose yards
Fearless Prediction:
Jets 21
Texans 20
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